OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Window 17 Aug 2026, 17:44 UTC → 17 Aug 2026, 19:14 UTC
Price at window start 9¢ → at trigger 8¢ → at close 3¢
YES down · NO up
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -5.4pts: 9¢ at window start → 3¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 9¢ (band 9¢–28¢)
band from 157 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 6.3× this market's 7-day norm, $472.6k in 24h
- BOOK Book 3.2:1 bid, $7.6k/$2.4k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $6.5k, 15.2× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 5,084 trades / 7d
Book 3.2:1 bid, $7.6k/$2.4k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢
Triggers (2)
- 17 Aug 2026, 17:44 UTC: Band breach (lower): 9¢ → 8¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 17 Aug 2026, 18:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 8¢ → 4¢ (-3.8pts), confirmed over 30s
Context artifact
@FirstSquawk · X: posted 3 min before the break
IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS NO DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO RESUME NEGOTIATIONS AND THE SITUATION IS PENDING
View the post
Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 176 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 8¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 6¢, held +2.2ptspts
- Peak move: +5.4pts
- Held 100% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 3¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots