US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.1pts: 13¢ at window start → 11¢ at close
• VOLUME 5.5× this market's 7-day norm, $380.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 6.1:1 bid, $5.7k/$929 within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $6.8k, 17.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 4,952 trades / 7d

Book 6.1:1 bid, $5.7k/$929 within 10¢ · spread 0.9¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 13:04 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 9¢ (-4.2pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.21× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 91 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 10¢, drift -0.4pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 9¢, held +4.1ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 47% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 11¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots