REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Window 17 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC → 17 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC
Price at window start 4¢ → at trigger 17¢ → at close 14¢
YES up · NO down
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +10.4pts: 4¢ at window start → 14¢ at close
- VOLUME 4.7× this market's 7-day norm, $317.7k in 24h
- BOOK Book 2.3:1 bid, $2.6k/$1.2k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $6.7k, 17.5× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 4,782 trades / 7d
Book 2.3:1 bid, $2.6k/$1.2k within 10¢ · spread 0.6¢
Triggers (10)
- 17 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 4¢ → 17¢ (+12.6pts), confirmed over 30s
- 17 Aug 2026, 10:33 UTC: Sustained reprice: 17¢ → 35¢ (+18.3pts), confirmed over 30s
- 17 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC: Band breach (upper): 35¢ → 32¢ (-2.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 17 Aug 2026, 10:40 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 29¢ (-3.7pts), confirmed over 30s
- 17 Aug 2026, 10:58 UTC: Sustained reprice: 29¢ → 21¢ (-8.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 17 Aug 2026, 11:01 UTC: Sustained reprice: 21¢ → 15¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 17 Aug 2026, 11:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 15¢ → 20¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 17 Aug 2026, 11:17 UTC: Sustained reprice: 20¢ → 13¢ (-6.8pts), confirmed over 30s
- 17 Aug 2026, 11:22 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 17¢ (+4.3pts), confirmed over 30s
- 17 Aug 2026, 11:51 UTC: Sustained reprice: 17¢ → 14¢ (-3.3pts), confirmed over 30s
Context artifact
@FirstSquawk · X: surfaced 3 min after the break began
IRAN AND US REPORTEDLY AGREE TO EXTEND 60-DAY PERIOD
View the post
Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.62× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 496 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 38¢, drift +21.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 13¢, held +9.3ptspts
- Peak move: +41.5pts
- Held 25% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 14¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots