US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.8pts: 6¢ at window start → 6¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 8¢ (band 8¢–28¢)
  band from 156 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 6.4× this market's 7-day norm, $490.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.5:1 bid, $7.6k/$3.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $800, 1.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 5,172 trades / 7d

Book 2.5:1 bid, $7.6k/$3.0k within 10¢ · spread 0.2¢

Triggers (2)

• 17 Aug 2026, 20:26 UTC: Sustained reprice: 6¢ → 11¢ (+4.1pts), confirmed over 30s
• 17 Aug 2026, 20:34 UTC: Band breach (lower): 11¢ → 8¢ (-2.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.22× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 59 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 9¢, drift -1.4pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 6¢, held -0.3ptspts
• Peak move: +4.2pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 6¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots