Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.5pts: 16¢ at window start → 14¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 16¢ (band 16¢–19¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.0× this market's 7-day norm, $4.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.2:1 bid, $10.3k/$4.6k within 10¢

Book 2.2:1 bid, $10.3k/$4.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 22:19 UTC: Band breach (lower): 16¢ → 15¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 15¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 14¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 14¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots