Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Window 17 Aug 2026, 20:19 UTC → 17 Aug 2026, 21:49 UTC
Price at window start 12¢ → at trigger 11¢ → at close 11¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 12¢ at window start → 11¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 11¢ (band 11¢–17¢) band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
VOLUME 1.9× this market's 7-day norm, $253.7k in 24h
BOOK Book 7.9:1 bid, $201.6k/$25.6k within 10¢
Book 7.9:1 bid, $201.6k/$25.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
17 Aug 2026, 20:19 UTC: Band breach (lower): 12¢ → 11¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context artifact
@FirstSquawk · X: posted 5 min before the break
INVESTOR CONCERNS INTENSIFIED AFTER TRUMP REJECTED EXTENDING THE U.S.-IRAN TRUCE, REDUCING HOPES FOR A DIPLOMATIC RESOLUTION AND INCREASING THE RISK OF PROLONGED DISRUPTION AROUND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AS BOND MARKETS ALSO CAME UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE 30-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CLIMBING FIVE BASIS POINTS TO 5.31%, ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2007, ON WORRIES OVER RISING U.S. DEBT AND HEAVY TREASURY ISSUANCE.