Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -6.0pts: 43¢ at window start → 37¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 44¢ (band 44¢–47¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.2× this market's 7-day norm, $256.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.7:1 ask, $27.6k/$75.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.7k, 2.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,815 trades / 7d

Book 2.7:1 ask, $27.6k/$75.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 39¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 43 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 38¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 38¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 37¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots