Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 19¢ at window start → 23¢ at close
• VOLUME 8.2× this market's 7-day norm, $19.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 ask, $2.6k/$4.1k within 10¢

Book 1.6:1 ask, $2.6k/$4.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 10:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 19¢ → 24¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.83× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 24¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 22¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 23¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots