Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -7.0pts: 23¢ at window start → 16¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 20¢ (band 20¢–26¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 57.3× this market's 7-day norm, $132.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.6:1 bid, $13.8k/$5.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $15.0k, 21.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 188 trades / 7d

Book 2.6:1 bid, $13.8k/$5.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 19:08 UTC: Band breach (lower): 23¢ → 17¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 9 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 16¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 16¢, held +7.0ptspts
• Peak move: +7.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 16¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots