OUTSIDE BAND FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Window 17 Aug 2026, 10:27 UTC → 17 Aug 2026, 11:57 UTC

Price at window start 95¢ → at trigger 96¢ → at close 95¢

YES up · NO down

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 95¢ at window start → 95¢ at close
VOLUME 2.1× this market's 7-day norm, $116.5k in 24h
BOOK Book 2.5:1 ask, $67.6k/$169.9k within 10¢

Book 2.5:1 ask, $67.6k/$169.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

17 Aug 2026, 10:27 UTC: Band breach (upper): 95¢ → 96¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
15 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 96¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 96¢, held +1.0ptspts
Peak move: +1.0pts
Held 0% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: yes
Price at close: 95¢
Graded from 180 snapshots