Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 95¢ at window start → 95¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm, $122.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.8:1 ask, $43.2k/$205.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $11.1k, 10.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,060 trades / 7d

Book 4.8:1 ask, $43.2k/$205.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 14:45 UTC: Band breach (upper): 95¢ → 96¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 9 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 96¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 96¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 95¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots