OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Window 17 Aug 2026, 07:52 UTC → 17 Aug 2026, 09:22 UTC
Price at window start 95¢ → at trigger 96¢ → at close 95¢
YES up · NO down
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 95¢ at window start → 95¢ at close
- VOLUME 1.8× this market's 7-day norm, $101.6k in 24h
- BOOK Book 2.8:1 ask, $62.6k/$175.5k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.1k, 1.9× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,046 trades / 7d
Book 2.8:1 ask, $62.6k/$175.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 17 Aug 2026, 07:52 UTC: Band breach (upper): 95¢ → 96¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context artifact
@FirstSquawk · X: posted moments before the break
STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING GRINDS TO A HALT AHEAD OF U.S.-IRAN CEASEFIRE EXPIRY
View the post
Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 9 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 96¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 96¢, held +1.0ptspts
- Peak move: +1.0pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 95¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots