Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 6¢ at window start → 9¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm, $28.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $3.6k/$2.8k within 10¢

Book 1.3:1 bid, $3.6k/$2.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 18:14 UTC: Sustained reprice: 6¢ → 9¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.6× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 9¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 9¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 9¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots