Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 6¢ at window start → 6¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 ask, $2.0k/$3.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.4k, 1.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 431 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $16.5k in 24h

Book 1.8:1 ask, $2.0k/$3.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC: Band breach (lower): 6¢ → 5¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 5¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 5¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 6¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots