Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +6.5pts: 40¢ at window start → 46¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 44¢ (band 35¢–44¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.8× this market's 7-day norm, $8.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 5.2:1 bid, $7.4k/$1.4k within 10¢

Book 5.2:1 bid, $7.4k/$1.4k within 10¢ · spread 4.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 18:49 UTC: Band breach (upper): 40¢ → 47¢ (+7.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.88× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 47¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 44¢, held +4.5ptspts
• Peak move: +7.5pts
• Held 87% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 46¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots