Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 7¢ at window start → 6¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 6¢ (band 6¢–13¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $4.9k/$2.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME $2.0k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 1.7:1 bid, $4.9k/$2.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 20:05 UTC: Band breach (lower): 7¢ → 6¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 6¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 6¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 6¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots