Fed decision in Sep 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 73¢ at window start → 74¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 73¢ (band 56¢–73¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.8:1 ask, $64.7k/$180.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.9k, 1.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 3,409 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $22.1k in 24h

Book 2.8:1 ask, $64.7k/$180.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 04:08 UTC: Band breach (upper): 73¢ → 74¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 16 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 74¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 73¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 74¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots