Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.8pts: 68¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 68¢ (band 48¢–68¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $16.6k/$16.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $22.1k in 24h

Book 1.0:1 bid, $16.6k/$16.4k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 16 Aug 2026, 18:04 UTC: Band breach (upper): 68¢ → 69¢ (+0.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 69¢, drift -0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 69¢, held +0.8ptspts
• Peak move: +0.8pts
• Held 94% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 69¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots