Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 84¢ at window start → 84¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 84¢ (band 81¢–84¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.4× this market's 7-day norm, $10.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 7.1:1 ask, $5.1k/$36.1k within 10¢

Book 7.1:1 ask, $5.1k/$36.1k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 16 Aug 2026, 01:24 UTC: Band breach (upper): 84¢ → 84¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 9 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 84¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 84¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 84¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots