Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 94¢ at window start → 96¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 94¢ (band 90¢–94¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $13.0k/$11.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $175, 1.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 209 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $3.0k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 1.1:1 bid, $13.0k/$11.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 16 Aug 2026, 18:06 UTC: Band breach (upper): 94¢ → 96¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 96¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 96¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 96¢
• Graded from 169 snapshots