US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
Window 16 Aug 2026, 20:54 UTC → 16 Aug 2026, 22:24 UTC
Price at window start 32¢ → at trigger 32¢ → at close 32¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 01 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC
Frozen payload
REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 32¢ at window start → 32¢ at close
BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $12.0k/$9.6k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $481, 2.2× this market's typical big trade size baseline: 95th pct of 627 trades / 7d
WIRE Wire: @realDonaldTrump T+10m, link confidence 85%: "Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I am not happy with the fact that the United Sta…"
VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $5.1k in 24h
Book 1.2:1 bid, $12.0k/$9.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
16 Aug 2026, 20:54 UTC: Band breach (lower): 32¢ → 32¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
Opening move ≈ 0.02× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
+2m after alert: 32¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction