US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 33¢ at window start → 32¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 32¢ (band 32¢–53¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $10.5k/$9.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.7× this market's 7-day norm, $5.7k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 bid, $10.5k/$9.1k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 16 Aug 2026, 13:04 UTC: Band breach (lower): 33¢ → 32¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.02× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 32¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 32¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 32¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots