Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 92¢ at window start → 93¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 93¢ (band 86¢–93¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.0× this market's 7-day norm, $224.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 23.5:1 ask, $14.6k/$343.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.0k, 3.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,102 trades / 7d

Book 23.5:1 ask, $14.6k/$343.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 16 Aug 2026, 03:36 UTC: Band breach (upper): 92¢ → 93¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 24 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 93¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 93¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 93¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots