Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 92¢ at window start → 93¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 93¢ (band 86¢–93¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.7× this market's 7-day norm, $206.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 23.0:1 ask, $16.0k/$367.8k within 10¢

Book 23.0:1 ask, $16.0k/$367.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 16 Aug 2026, 01:31 UTC: Band breach (upper): 92¢ → 93¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 93¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 93¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 93¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots