Iran leadership change by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 18¢ at window start → 17¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 17¢ (band 17¢–20¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.4× this market's 7-day norm, $24.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 10.6:1 bid, $151.2k/$14.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.6k, 2.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 283 trades / 7d

Book 10.6:1 bid, $151.2k/$14.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 16 Aug 2026, 12:32 UTC: Band breach (lower): 18¢ → 17¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 17¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 17¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 17¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots