Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 7¢ at window start → 6¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 6¢ (band 6¢–11¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.1× this market's 7-day norm, $22.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 ask, $3.2k/$5.0k within 10¢

Book 1.6:1 ask, $3.2k/$5.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 16 Aug 2026, 13:04 UTC: Band breach (lower): 7¢ → 6¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 34 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 6¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 6¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 6¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots