Best AI at the end of 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.6pts: 69¢ at window start → 70¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 69¢ (band 64¢–69¢)
  band from 161 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 ask, $4.5k/$9.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $243, 3.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,828 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $10.1k in 24h

Book 2.0:1 ask, $4.5k/$9.3k within 10¢ · spread 3.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 16 Aug 2026, 19:31 UTC: Band breach (upper): 69¢ → 70¢ (+1.4pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.3× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 23 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 70¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 70¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.1pts
• Held 77% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 70¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots