2028 Republican presidential nominee

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 23¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 23¢ (band 23¢–43¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.4× this market's 7-day norm, $9.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.7:1 ask, $13.5k/$64.1k within 10¢

Book 4.7:1 ask, $13.5k/$64.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 16 Aug 2026, 19:34 UTC: Band breach (lower): 24¢ → 23¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 23¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 23¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 23¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots