Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 57¢ at window start → 59¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 58¢ (band 43¢–58¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 bid, $5.4k/$2.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $792 in 24h

Book 1.9:1 bid, $5.4k/$2.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 22:59 UTC: Band breach (upper): 57¢ → 59¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 150s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 59¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 59¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 59¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots