Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 40¢ at window start → 39¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 40¢ (band 40¢–49¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.9× this market's 7-day norm, $1.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.3:1 ask, $1.1k/$3.9k within 10¢

Book 3.3:1 ask, $1.1k/$3.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 22:21 UTC: Band breach (lower): 40¢ → 39¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 39¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 39¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 39¢
• Graded from 174 snapshots