Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 48¢ at window start → 51¢ at close
• BOOK Book 4.8:1 bid, $21.2k/$4.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $4.6k in 24h

Book 4.8:1 bid, $21.2k/$4.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 08:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 48¢ → 51¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.37× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 51¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 50¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 86% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 51¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots