Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.9pts: 53¢ at window start → 54¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 54¢ (band 51¢–54¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $18.0k/$10.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.2× this market's 7-day norm, $509 in 24h

Book 1.7:1 bid, $18.0k/$10.5k within 10¢ · spread 0.4¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 19:31 UTC: Band breach (upper): 53¢ → 54¢ (+0.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 54¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 55¢, held +1.1ptspts
• Peak move: +1.1pts
• Held 74% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 54¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots