Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 93¢ at window start → 94¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 93¢ (band 90¢–93¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 2.2:1 ask, $9.5k/$20.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME $1.1k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 2.2:1 ask, $9.5k/$20.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 16:53 UTC: Band breach (upper): 93¢ → 94¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 94¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 94¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 94¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots