REPRICED FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Window 15 Aug 2026, 13:40 UTC → 15 Aug 2026, 15:10 UTC

Price at window start 16¢ → at trigger 19¢ → at close 19¢

YES up · NO down

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 16¢ at window start → 19¢ at close
VOLUME 2.8× this market's 7-day norm, $175.6k in 24h
BOOK Book 3.1:1 bid, $9.2k/$3.0k within 10¢

Book 3.1:1 bid, $9.2k/$3.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

15 Aug 2026, 13:40 UTC: Sustained reprice: 16¢ → 19¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
17 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 20¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 19¢, held +3.0ptspts
Peak move: +4.0pts
Held 75% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 19¢
Graded from 179 snapshots