US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 13¢ at window start → 14¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 22¢ (band 22¢–61¢)
  band from 157 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.4× this market's 7-day norm, $200.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $9.8k/$5.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.1k, 4.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 4,879 trades / 7d

Book 1.7:1 bid, $9.8k/$5.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 15 Aug 2026, 07:14 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 16¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 15 Aug 2026, 07:34 UTC: Sustained reprice: 16¢ → 13¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 16¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 14¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 29% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 14¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots