UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 19¢ at window start → 23¢ at close
• BOOK Book 7.9:1 bid, $1.6k/$199 within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $2.8k in 24h

Book 7.9:1 bid, $1.6k/$199 within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 17:23 UTC: Sustained reprice: 19¢ → 23¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 24¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 24¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 23¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots