Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 16¢ at window start → 17¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.8× this market's 7-day norm, $5.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 bid, $7.0k/$3.3k within 10¢

Book 2.1:1 bid, $7.0k/$3.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 21:52 UTC: Band breach (lower): 16¢ → 16¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 17¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 17¢, held -0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 17¢
• Graded from 174 snapshots