Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 47¢ at window start → 47¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $44.3k/$51.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $87.1k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 ask, $44.3k/$51.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 16:47 UTC: Band breach (lower): 47¢ → 46¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 46¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 46¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 47¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots