South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 86¢ at window start → 86¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.8× this market's 7-day norm, $288.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $119.2k/$163.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.7k, 2.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 7,558 trades / 7d

Book 1.4:1 ask, $119.2k/$163.0k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 15:31 UTC: Band breach (upper): 86¢ → 87¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.02× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 23 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 87¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 87¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 86¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots