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Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 86¢ at window start → 88¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 86¢ (band 42¢–86¢)
  band from 160 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.1× this market's 7-day norm, $232.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 ask, $143.5k/$290.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $14.1k, 18.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 7,575 trades / 7d

Book 2.0:1 ask, $143.5k/$290.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 22:48 UTC: Band breach (upper): 86¢ → 87¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.02× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 21 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 87¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 87¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 88¢
• Graded from 174 snapshots