Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.5pts: 45¢ at window start → 48¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 47¢ (band 43¢–47¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 15.3× this market's 7-day norm, $41.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.7:1 bid, $16.0k/$6.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $929, 2.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 281 trades / 7d

Book 2.7:1 bid, $16.0k/$6.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 20:25 UTC: Band breach (upper): 45¢ → 50¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 23 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 50¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 49¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 56% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 48¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots