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Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -33.0pts: 67¢ at window start → 34¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 63¢ (band 63¢–67¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 15.9:1 ask, $9.7k/$154.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $24.5k in 24h

Book 15.9:1 ask, $9.7k/$154.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 08:58 UTC: Band breach (lower): 67¢ → 34¢ (-33.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 8.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 34¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 34¢, held +33.0ptspts
• Peak move: +33.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 34¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots