Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 92¢ at window start → 92¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.6× this market's 7-day norm, $198.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 25.0:1 ask, $15.0k/$373.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.1k, 2.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,067 trades / 7d

Book 25.0:1 ask, $15.0k/$373.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 23:03 UTC: Band breach (upper): 92¢ → 93¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 22 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 93¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 91¢, held -1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 92¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots