Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 9¢ at window start → 8¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 8¢ (band 8¢–11¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $4.5k/$5.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $11.9k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 ask, $4.5k/$5.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 04:45 UTC: Band breach (lower): 9¢ → 8¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 8¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 8¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 8¢
• Graded from 177 snapshots