Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +7.5pts: 18¢ at window start → 26¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 19¢ (band 16¢–19¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 4.3:1 bid, $11.6k/$2.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME $3.0k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)

Book 4.3:1 bid, $11.6k/$2.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 08:58 UTC: Band breach (upper): 18¢ → 26¢ (+7.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 2.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 26¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 26¢, held +7.5ptspts
• Peak move: +7.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 26¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots