Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 13¢ at window start → 13¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 13¢ (band 10¢–13¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 bid, $2.5k/$1.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $2.3k in 24h

Book 1.4:1 bid, $2.5k/$1.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 16:51 UTC: Band breach (upper): 13¢ → 14¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 14¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 14¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 13¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots