OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Window 15 Aug 2026, 23:18 UTC → 16 Aug 2026, 00:48 UTC
Price at window start 68¢ → at trigger 69¢ → at close 68¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 68¢ at window start → 68¢ at close
- VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm, $13.6k in 24h
- BOOK Book 4.0:1 ask, $2.5k/$9.9k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.4k, 20.2× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 2,847 trades / 7d
Book 4.0:1 ask, $2.5k/$9.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.2¢
Triggers (1)
- 15 Aug 2026, 23:18 UTC: Band breach (upper): 68¢ → 69¢ (+0.7pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 24 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 69¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 69¢, held +0.9ptspts
- Peak move: +0.9pts
- Held 6% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 68¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots