Best AI at the end of 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.2pts: 65¢ at window start → 60¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 64¢ (band 64¢–68¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $9.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.3:1 ask, $467/$1.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $149, 2.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,648 trades / 7d

Book 3.3:1 ask, $467/$1.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.6¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 12:32 UTC: Band breach (lower): 65¢ → 60¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 46 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 60¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 58¢, held +6.1ptspts
• Peak move: +6.5pts
• Held 65% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 60¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots