2028 Republican presidential nominee

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -18.0pts: 43¢ at window start → 25¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 40¢ (band 40¢–43¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 4.8:1 ask, $13.8k/$66.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $1.9k in 24h

Book 4.8:1 ask, $13.8k/$66.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 08:58 UTC: Band breach (lower): 43¢ → 25¢ (-18.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 6× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 25¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 25¢, held +18.0ptspts
• Peak move: +18.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 25¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots