2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -33.0pts: 48¢ at window start → 15¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 43¢ (band 43¢–47¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $36.7k/$36.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $3.1k in 24h

Book 1.0:1 bid, $36.7k/$36.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 15 Aug 2026, 08:58 UTC: Sustained reprice: 48¢ → 15¢ (-33.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 6.6× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 15¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 15¢, held +33.0ptspts
• Peak move: +33.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 15¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots